AGP Executive Report

NATO & Defence: Bulgaria’s PM Rumen Radev said Sofia has exhausted its ability to supply weapons and ammunition to Ukraine from military stockpiles, while pledging continued financial support and technical repairs; the move mirrors wider strain as the Netherlands also says it has hit its limit on direct military aid. Energy Infrastructure: Bulgaria and Greece are pushing a joint plan to accelerate Southeast and Central Europe energy market integration, while Vertical Gas Corridor capacity bookings exceeded expectations and new countries (North Macedonia, Serbia) are joining technical work. EU Policy for Industry: The EU Council adopted five country-specific recommendations for Bulgaria, including tighter deficit control, higher defence spending, and faster Recovery and Resilience and cohesion delivery; separately, Bulgaria called for an EU ETS impact review and more investment in power grids, storage and digitalization. Solar Supply Chain Risk: EU restrictions on “high-risk” Chinese solar inverters are already drawing warnings that they could stall renewables rollout in Central and Eastern Europe, including Bulgaria. Tourism Push: Bulgaria aims to double foreign tourist numbers from about 4m to ~8m by 2029, with a “Marshall Plan” to win back German visitors via more flights and targeted promotion. Agriculture & Exports: The 2nd Raspberry Festival in Samokov highlighted a positive export balance for Bulgarian berries, with irrigation and crop protection key themes. Maritime Security: The Netherlands, Belgium and Bulgaria signed an MoU to transfer seven mine countermeasure vessels to the Bulgarian Navy, boosting Black Sea shipping safety. Business & Tech: Bulgaria’s innovation minister says the country wants to lead in technology and AI, pointing to the BRAIN++ supercomputer and robotics advisory work. Economy Data: Industrial production fell 4.8% year-on-year in May, while exports kept growing (up 7.8% y/y) and the overnight accommodation market rose 20.6% y/y.

Defence & Security: Bulgarian PM Rumen Radev said Sofia has exhausted its ability to supply weapons and ammunition to Ukraine from military stockpiles, while pledging continued financial support and technical repairs; the move echoes wider NATO strain as partners hit their own limits. Energy Infrastructure: Bulgaria and Greece agreed to draft a joint strategic document to speed up energy-market integration, with talks also advancing the Vertical Gas Corridor and regional gas transmission coordination. EU Climate Rules: Bulgaria urged an EU ETS impact review for energy-intensive industries and called for more investment in power grids, storage and digitalization. Tech & AI: Innovation Minister Ivan Vasilev said Bulgaria wants to be a technology and AI leader, pointing to the BRAIN++ supercomputer and robotics advisory work. Industry & Trade: Bulgaria’s industrial production fell 4.8% year-on-year in May, while exports kept growing (up 7.8% y/y) as industrial output weakened. Agriculture: The 2nd Raspberry Festival in Samokov highlighted strong berry export balance and the role of irrigation and crop protection. Local Energy Markets: Sofia Council approved a municipal electricity trading company to cut costs and support the city’s renewables and grid balancing needs. Maritime Security: The Netherlands, Belgium and Bulgaria signed an MoU to transfer seven mine countermeasure vessels to the Bulgarian Navy for Black Sea shipping protection.

Black Sea Security & Defence Industry: Netherlands, Belgium and Bulgaria signed an MoU to transfer seven mine countermeasure vessels to the Bulgarian Navy during the NATO summit in Ankara, boosting regional mine-clearing capacity and protecting commercial shipping routes. Energy Infrastructure: Greece hosted talks to advance the Vertical Gas Corridor with operators from nine countries (including Bulgaria), aiming to speed planning and build infrastructure ahead of the EU’s Russian gas import phase-out. Nuclear Risk Management: Bulgaria approved a new one-year general civil liability insurance contract for nuclear damage at Kozloduy, with coverage expiring at end-July 2026. Solar Supply Chain Pressure: EU restrictions on “high-risk” Chinese PV inverters/PCS are drawing warnings from companies and investors that they could stall solar and storage rollouts in Central and Eastern Europe, including Bulgaria. Industrial Performance: Bulgaria’s industrial production fell 4.8% year-on-year in May, while exports kept growing (up 7.8% y/y) as industrial momentum weakened. Tourism Demand: Bulgaria plans a “Marshall Plan” to win back German tourists via more flights, tour-operator partnerships and targeted promotion. Municipal Power Trading: Sofia Council approved a municipal electricity trading company to supply municipal entities with a low trading margin, targeting savings and supporting renewable projects. Finance & Trade Tech: Eurobank launched the first cross-border payment from Greece to India using UPI, strengthening a Europe–India payments corridor. Geopolitics at NATO: Türkiye’s role at the Ankara summit was highlighted as growing beyond geography, with renewed emphasis on Black Sea security and energy cooperation.

Municipal Power Trading: Sofia’s council approved a city-owned electricity trading company, Sofia Energy Trade, aiming for savings of over EUR 5M a year by using a single supplier with a minimal margin and coordinating balancing for the city’s renewables. Agri-Commodity Flows: The EU boosted exports of soft wheat (+8% to 23.42M tonnes) and barley (+73% to 8.98M) while cutting corn imports (-6.5% to 18.47M), with some country data still incomplete. Energy Security & Grids: Bulgaria’s energy minister framed energy security as a regional project, pointing to the Vertical Gas Corridor and the East-West electricity corridor to strengthen cross-border supply. Nuclear Liability Insurance: The government cleared a new one-year general civil liability insurance contract for Kozloduy’s nuclear damage, to be concluded via the national nuclear insurance pool. Film & Production: Clive Owen’s thriller “Scorpion” is shooting in Cyprus before moving to Bulgaria, signaling continued high-budget production interest in the region. Smart Farming Connectivity: LoRaWAN is being positioned as the go-to connectivity for smart agriculture, citing long range, low power, low cost and satellite backup. Border Infrastructure: Bulgaria and Serbia signed for a new Kalotina 2–Gradina 2 crossing to ease heavy traffic at the existing checkpoint. Housing Market: Bulgaria ranked among the EU’s fastest-growing housing markets, with house prices up 14.8% y/y and rents up 10.5% in early 2026. Defence Industry Funding Debate: GERB and Democratic Bulgaria MPs traded accusations over the funding and contract status of Rheinmetall’s gunpowder factory near Sopot. Aviation Training: Sofema Aviation Services launched an IOSA internal auditor webinar series focused on risk-based auditing for operators. Travel Demand Rebound: Jet2 reported summer bookings up 7.1% year-on-year as Middle East uncertainty eased, with Bulgaria among the strongest rebound destinations.

Defence Industry & Investment: Bulgaria’s economy leadership is under pressure over the Rheinmetall gunpowder/propellant plant near Sopot: GERB says the project is strategically vital and needs funding, while the Economy Minister says there’s no contract and SAFE funding covers only a small share. NATO & Security Industrial Cooperation: At the Ankara NATO summit, Türkiye, Romania and Bulgaria agreed to expand Black Sea naval cooperation beyond mine countermeasures, while US–Türkiye talks signaled possible movement on CAATSA and F-35 issues. Cross-Border Infrastructure: Bulgaria and Serbia signed a memorandum to open the Kalotina 2–Gradina 2 border crossing to ease heavy traffic, with work also progressing on a second crossing near Kalotina. Energy & Markets: Bulgaria and Ukraine discussed energy cooperation and new corridors; separately, EU rules tightening solar inverter sourcing from high-risk suppliers could hit a meaningful slice of Central and Eastern European demand, with Bulgaria flagged as exposed. Housing & Construction Demand: Eurostat data shows Bulgaria among the fastest-growing EU housing markets, with house prices up 14.8% and rents up 10.5% year on year in early 2026. Aviation Training: Sofema Aviation Services launched an IOSA Internal Auditor webinar series for risk-based auditing methods. Culture Budget: The 2026 state budget bill proposes higher funding for Bulgaria’s culture sector, including film industry support and more money for state performing arts institutions.

Energy Gateway: PM Rumen Radev says agreements with Türkiye will turn Bulgaria into an energy gateway for Central and Eastern Europe, with growing allied interest after the Ankara NATO summit. Fuel Market Stability: Deputy PM Alexander Poulev says the government is in ongoing talks with Lukoil management to avoid disruptions at the Burgas refinery, amid intra-group loan tensions and sanctions constraints. Solar Supply Shock: The EU’s ban on high-risk PV inverters and power-conversion systems from China is expected to hit about 14% of European solar demand to 2030, with Bulgaria among the most exposed markets. Defence Industry Funding: Parliament hears that Bulgaria has paid EUR 40m for a Rheinmetall propellant plant but lacks funds for the full project; SAFE covers only 10–15% of needs. Nuclear Project Talks: Radev meets Westinghouse on feasibility work for Kozloduy units 7 and 8, while the economy ministry says there’s no signed contract with Rheinmetall for a gunpowder factory near Sopot. Infrastructure & Borders: Bulgaria and Serbia will sign an agreement to open the Kalotina 2–Gradina 2 checkpoint to ease border traffic. EU Rules Pressure: The European Commission starts infringement procedures against Bulgaria and others over mandatory authorisation/certification rules for energy installation and construction services. Housing Costs: Eurostat data shows Bulgaria among the fastest-rising EU markets for house prices and rents in early 2026. Biodiversity Research: LifeWatch BEeS 2026 opens in Plovdiv, focusing on biodiversity and the “One Health” link between soils, ecosystems and human health. Defence Cooperation: Bulgaria and Poland discuss defence and defence-industry cooperation, including modernization aligned with NATO and EU priorities. Water Digitalisation: EU-backed water network digitisation aims to cut leaks and improve monitoring, with Bulgaria in the broader policy push.

Black Sea Security & Energy: Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania expanded their joint Black Sea mine countermeasures mission at the NATO summit in Ankara to also cover protection of critical undersea infrastructure, including energy assets and pipelines, after clearing more than 150 mines since 2024. NATO Industrial Push: NATO allies moved toward a bigger Cold War-era fuel pipeline expansion plan linking Eastern Europe and Turkey to secure crisis supplies, with potential costs discussed in the tens of billions. Nuclear & SMR Cooperation: The US, Japan and South Korea signed a memorandum to speed up small modular reactor deployments in third countries, aiming to streamline licensing and supply chains. Bulgaria Finance & Defence Funding: Bulgaria’s Finance Ministry raised EUR 2.5bn via international bond issuance in three tranches, with part of the borrowing linked to EU SAFE support for strengthening the defence industry. Food Industry Expansion: Dairy Food Bulgaria plans to invest €6m to expand, positioning itself for export-oriented private label production. Logistics & Shipping: Low Danube water levels are disrupting shipping in Bulgaria’s river section, forcing draft restrictions at key shallow spots. Aviation Skills: Sofema Aviation launched an EASA-focused aircraft technical leasing training diploma for leasing and asset-management professionals.

Capital Markets: Hyprop Investments raised about R739m in an oversubscribed accelerated bookbuild, issuing ~12.6m shares at R58.50, with proceeds earmarked for expansion and energy projects across Eastern Europe (excluding the previously announced Galleria Burgas deal). Public Finance: Bulgaria’s Finance Ministry placed EUR 2.5bn in new debt on international markets in three tranches (2032/2038/2042), while the 2026 State Budget Bill cleared first committee vote with a 5.7% deficit target and higher capital spending. Healthcare Budget: The NHIF 2026 budget was adopted at first reading, keeping the 8% contribution rate and boosting health insurance payments by 8.7%. Transport & Construction: The Transport Ministry is drafting a roadmap for strategic national infrastructure projects with clearer planning, deadlines and indexation, and calls for transparent public-private cooperation. Energy & Industry: Low Danube water levels are disrupting shipping on the Bulgarian stretch, with multiple shallow spots forcing draft restrictions. Defence & NATO Industry: Bulgaria’s defence leadership stressed NATO unity and the need for a stronger, integrated defence industrial base as NATO pushes counter-drone cooperation and transatlantic industrial interoperability. Space Tech: President Iliana Iotova visited EnduroSat, highlighting satellite manufacturing in Sofia and plans to expand into defence and a space campus at the former Dobroslavtsi airport. Jobs & Labour Demand: JobTiger data shows job postings in Bulgaria fell 8% month-on-month and 15% year-on-year in June, with declines across most sectors including construction, manufacturing and logistics. Culture with Industry Angle: Bulgarian crime series “Mamnik” won three international awards, adding to Bulgaria’s growing screen-production footprint.

NHIF Budget: Bulgaria’s Parliament Budget and Finance Committee approved the 2026 NHIF budget bill at first reading, setting revenues and expenditures at about EUR 5.256bn and raising health insurance payments by 8.7% while keeping the contribution rate at 8%. Transport Planning: The Transport Ministry is drafting a roadmap for strategic national infrastructure projects with long-term planning, clearer deadlines and indexation rules, plus closer dialogue with the Construction Chamber and industry. Job Market: JobTiger data shows job postings in Bulgaria fell 8% month-on-month and 15% year-on-year in June, with declines across sectors including construction, manufacturing, logistics and IT. Energy Contract: Bulgargaz and Türkiye’s BOTAŞ signed a protocol suspending their gas supply agreement for 15 months, shifting Bulgaria to pay only for transmission capacity actually used while renegotiations continue. Tourism Seasonality: Eurostat data ranks Bulgaria as the EU’s second most seasonal tourism destination in 2025, with 43% of overnight stays concentrated in July and August. Industrial Prices: Eurostat reports industrial producer prices rose in May across the euro area and EU, with Bulgaria among the highest annual movers. Animal Health: A new Chief Veterinary Sanitary Inspector was appointed to strengthen disease prevention and surveillance across the food chain. NATO Industry & Drones: At the Ankara NATO summit, experts pushed for deeper transatlantic defense industry cooperation, while NATO announced a $40bn counter-drone initiative to scale procurement and training. Culture & Media: Bulgarian film “Black Money for White Nights” premiered at Karlovy Vary’s main competition, and TV series “Mamnik” won three international awards.

Energy & Trade: Bulgargaz and Türkiye’s BOTAS have signed a protocol to suspend their gas supply agreement for 15 months, with Bulgaria paying only for transmission capacity actually used while both sides renegotiate terms to match current market conditions. NATO & Defence Industry: The 36th NATO Summit has opened in Ankara, starting with a Defense Industry Forum focused on transatlantic defence production and investment, with Bulgaria’s PM Rumen Radev among the leaders meeting Erdoğan. Industrial Costs: Eurostat data show Bulgaria posted the EU’s biggest annual jump in industrial producer prices in May (+19.3% y/y), far above the euro area (+5.9%) and EU (+5.7%), with monthly prices up 0.4% in Bulgaria. Agriculture & Shipping: A new Agri Markets 360 report says China now buys 61% of traded soybeans, while South America’s dominance and fertiliser supply risks are set to lift global agricultural trade growth by 2.3% over the next five years. Business Services: Sofia web design firm WDesigner.NET says it uses designer-led AI to deliver complete custom websites before payment, and plans to hire rather than cut staff. Public Health & Social Policy: The Ombudsman urged Parliament to protect vulnerable groups in the 2026 budget, warning that tighter controls shouldn’t reduce access to social benefits and calling for pension and disability benefit indexation. Veterinary Control: Bulgaria appointed Dr. Koicho Koev as Chief Veterinary Sanitary Inspector to strengthen prevention and surveillance against infectious animal diseases.

Industrial Prices Watch: Bulgaria posted the EU’s biggest jump in industrial producer prices in May, up 19.3% year-on-year, while the euro area rose 5.9% and the EU 5.7%, with energy driving much of the increase. Trade & Sanctions: EU diplomats say the 21st Russia sanctions package could slip to autumn if member states can’t agree this week; the Russian oil price cap may still be handled separately on 14 July. NATO & Regional Business Links: Prime Minister Rumen Radev met Turkish officials in Ankara ahead of the NATO summit, with trade, transport, energy and defence industry cooperation on the agenda. Food Safety at the Border: Bulgaria seized nearly three tonnes of undocumented animal products at Kapitan Andreevo, including sheep fat and meat, with goods set for destruction. Pharma Supply Pressure: Bulgaria plans to scrap mandatory rebates for generic medicines to protect supply after a record 430 products disappeared from the market in 2025. AI in Services: Sofia web agency WDesigner.NET says it uses designer-led AI to build full custom websites before payment, and plans new hires. Film Industry: Sarajevo’s CineLink revealed Co-Production Market and Drama lineups, including Bulgarian projects and a new €10,000 cash award.

Nuclear & Energy Security: Bulgaria’s PM Rumen Radev says he proposed reviving the Belene nuclear plant jointly with Ukraine using EU funds, with electricity routed via Romania—another attempt to restart a project long stuck over costs and reactor sales. Sanctions & Energy Interests: Sofia warns it won’t back the EU’s 21st Russia sanctions package unless Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil co-founder Vagit Alekperov are removed from the list, citing Bulgaria’s energy stakes. Medicines Supply: Bulgaria moves to protect access to generics by scrapping mandatory rebates blamed for worsening shortages, after 430 products disappeared from the market in 2025. Competition & Food Markets: The Commission for Protection of Competition says reports of violations quadrupled, with work in food, fuels, pharmaceuticals and procurement, including probes and actions affecting market fairness. Tax Compliance on the Coast: The National Revenue Agency inspected 330+ Black Sea businesses and found common issues like missing fiscal receipts and cash register discrepancies. Urban Infrastructure: Sofia Mayor Terziev criticizes the 2026 budget draft for missing municipal infrastructure rules and funding gaps for public transport stability. Air Quality Trend: Europe’s air pollution is improving as key emissions fall, though weather swings still drive year-to-year changes.

EU Sanctions Standoff: Bulgaria says it will back the EU’s 21st Russia sanctions only if Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil co-founder Vagit Alekperov are removed from the list, citing energy interests. Public Finance Debate: GERB leader Boyko Borissov signals opposition to the draft state budget over a proposed 5.7% deficit, arguing Bulgaria must stay within the 3% legal limit. Competition & Consumer Protection: The Commission for Protection of Competition reports a quadruple rise in submitted violation reports and points to work in food, fuels, pharma and public procurement; meanwhile the NRA’s Black Sea summer checks found common breaches like missing fiscal receipts and cash-register mismatches. Urban Infrastructure: Sofia Mayor Vassil Terziev says the 2026 draft budget misses key municipal funding needs, including public transport stability and major school and hospital projects. Energy & Industry Transition: EU launches five joint defence projects to curb fragmented arms spending, while GEN-I Sonce lands its first EPC contract in Romania for a 55 MW/225 MWh battery storage build. Culture & Film: Directors Kristina Grozeva and Petar Valchanov return to Karlovy Vary with “Black Money for White Nights,” and animator Theodore Ushev’s “Light Boxes” is selected for Venice’s Gap-Financing Market.

Competition Watch: Bulgaria’s competition watchdog says reports of potential violations have quadrupled, with recent focus on food supply imbalances, retail practices, and dairy market scrutiny. Tax & Retail Compliance: The NRA’s Black Sea summer checks found the most common issues are missing fiscal receipts and cash-register mismatches, with some stalls shut for operating without cash registers. Municipal Budget Pressure: Sofia Mayor Terziev says the draft 2026 state budget leaves key municipal infrastructure and public transport stability underfunded, warning of transparency and co-financing gaps. Energy & Sanctions: Bulgaria signals it will place reservations on the EU’s 21st Russia sanctions package, linking its stance to energy interests and the removal of specific names; meanwhile, talks around Lukoil supply arrangements aim to avoid arbitration. Ports & Logistics: Transport Minister Peev orders extra controls to stop overloaded trucks entering and leaving Bulgarian ports after accidents, pushing responsibility back to shippers/loaders. Defense Industry Cooperation: Bulgaria and Czechia reaffirm defence cooperation, including industry-to-industry experience exchange. Grid & Storage Buildout: GEN-I Sonce lands its first EPC contract in Romania for a 55 MW/225 MWh battery project, underlining the region’s push to strengthen grid integration.

Competition Watch: Bulgaria’s Commission for Protection of Competition chief Rosen Karadimov says competition-violation reports quadrupled year-on-year, with probes and cases spanning food, fuels, pharma and public procurement. Black Sea Tax Control: The National Revenue Agency inspected 330+ businesses along the Black Sea coast; violations were found at 100, most often failure to issue fiscal receipts and cash-register discrepancies, with two traders shut down for operating without cash registers. Municipal Budget Pressure: Sofia Mayor Vassil Terziev warns the 2026 draft state budget misses key municipal infrastructure funding, metro stability support and major school/health and road projects. Energy & Industry: Bulgaria signals it will oppose the EU’s 21st Russia sanctions package unless Patriarch Kirill and LUKOIL co-founder Vagit Alekperov are removed, citing energy interests; meanwhile, PM Rumen Radev says progress with Litasco may help avoid arbitration over the Lukoil refinery dispute. Defence Cooperation: NATO diplomats in Ankara stress unity and solidarity ahead of the July 7-8 summit, while the EU launches five joint defence projects to curb fragmented national arms spending. Logistics & Ports: Transport Minister Georgi Peev orders extra checks to stop overloaded trucks entering/ leaving Bulgarian ports, pushing responsibility onto shippers and port operators. Energy Transition: GEN-I Sonce lands its first EPC contract in Romania for a 55 MW/225 MWh BESS, and ACER reports Russian gas imports to the EU rose in early 2026 despite restrictions.

Energy & Sanctions: Bulgaria says it will place reservations on the EU’s 21st Russia sanctions package, linking the stance to protecting energy interests and avoiding costly arbitration tied to Lukoil operations; Sofia also wants two names removed from the list—Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil boss Vagit Alekperov—while Italy joins Bulgaria in raising objections. Nuclear & Infrastructure: Bulgaria’s PM Rumen Radev says he proposed joint construction of the Belene NPP with Ukraine using EU funding, while also pushing for electricity supply via Romania. Ports & Logistics: Transport Minister Georgi Peev orders extra checks to stop overloaded trucks entering and leaving Bulgarian ports, after accidents; separately, the ministry discusses port competitiveness and the Middle Corridor, including governance and infrastructure gaps. EU Defence Cooperation: The European Commission backs five large-scale defence projects (drones, maritime/seabed, space, air power, missile defence) with €325m, aiming to boost eastern-flank readiness. Food & Agri Innovation: The EVERY Company partners with Huvepharma to scale fermentation-based egg protein, targeting faster industrial production. Local Enforcement: Sunny Beach police issue dozens of penalties over illegal electric scooter and bicycle use in pedestrian zones, plus consumer-price labelling violations.